Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.457391 28.857864 34.258519 41.528323 51.312750 6.443341e+01 84.140925
2025-02-02 20.177054 25.562780 32.965538 44.416480 62.826416 9.383017e+01 157.677730
2025-02-09 16.504101 21.686775 29.250887 41.908251 64.606262 1.093033e+02 228.228921
2025-02-16 14.947134 20.324397 28.636805 43.688406 74.028606 1.458797e+02 420.099640
2025-02-23 13.445548 18.724834 27.226649 43.548716 79.620693 1.798682e+02 743.684768
2025-03-02 12.251176 17.395570 25.963972 43.252301 84.730284 2.194821e+02 1450.604124
2025-03-09 11.419235 16.519612 25.298262 43.916842 92.619309 2.821750e+02 4152.680901
2025-03-16 10.388958 15.183777 23.588062 41.924040 92.394391 3.129524e+02 10381.885858
2025-03-23 9.741735 14.424186 22.825099 41.843250 97.919880 3.882389e+02 217186.492428
2025-03-30 8.928741 13.297599 21.218682 39.456346 95.003272 4.083553e+02 NaN
2025-04-06 8.168350 12.203732 19.562283 36.663050 89.697755 4.041422e+02 NaN
2025-04-13 7.564900 11.345312 18.286785 34.601373 86.333530 4.130180e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 7.780708 11.993552 20.128945 40.935860 119.585921 1.023298e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 7.626098 11.947644 20.549938 43.746591 142.569763 2.139188e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 7.094493 11.144567 19.247175 41.292670 137.208220 2.323044e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 6.909947 10.988633 19.340175 43.034154 157.181367 5.556877e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 6.617367 10.598515 18.861776 42.897525 166.302619 1.148241e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 6.341620 10.220659 18.369251 42.607590 174.628200 3.059468e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 6.143318 9.981354 18.170436 43.257575 191.426748 8.413241e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 5.817557 9.465562 17.270708 41.308111 185.407862 8.504056e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 5.616771 9.190290 16.919867 41.229058 196.047364 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.312577 8.688686 15.984924 38.892772 184.069897 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.003876 8.165799 14.969941 36.156933 167.240979 NaN NaN